Ofer Glanz
Seventy years after the establishment of the State of Israel, the global Jewish community stands at a significant crossroads. Will Europe once again become a significant center of Jewish life towards the end of the current century? What are the implications of such a plausible scenario, and what are the challenges and opportunities it presents? What are the challenges it poses for "Israeli Judaism"?
If you will it, it is no dream; and if you do not will it, a dream it is and a dream it will stay
Babylon and Jerusalem
In the last generation, since the Holocaust and the establishment of the State of Israel, the Jewish people have developed an awareness of the reality of two main Jewish centres, one in the United States and the other in Israel. This awareness does not ignore the existence of medium and small Jewish centres in other countries in Europe, Australia, Latin America, and former USSR countries. Still, these are mistakenly perceived as secondary on the Jewish world map, as reflected in their marginalization from contemporary discourse on the Jewish diaspora. The term "diaspora" is used mostly as a somewhat broad reference to "North America."
At the same time, the last decades have been characterized by migration trends to Europe of non-Jews, mainly from Muslim countries and African states. Although this migration is generally not welcomed, especially in the past two decades, these migration trends, alongside changes in the expressions of anti-Semitism and the assimilation of some Jewish communities in Europe, have led to numerous predictions and speculations regarding the expected disappearance of European Jewry.
This article presents a possible, plausible, scenario for Europe's return to being a significant Jewish center, both in terms of its numerical and its influential impact on the Jewish identity, thought, culture, and religion. The accepted claim[1] that the end of Jewish existence in Europe is imminent may prove to be incorrect. Instead, we present the opposite possibility: that we may be on the threshold of a dramatic change in the Jewish world, which by the end of the current century will bring Europe back to being a significant Jewish center, equal in its quantitative and undoubtedly qualitative strength to other Jewish centers. This scenario was developed by using a new strategic planning methodology called "scenario planning,"[2] in which the traditional planning strategy that relates to a single (desired or predicted) future scenario is abandoned. Instead, three to five scenarios are considered, with a certain likelihood of realization. The discussion of trends, phenomena, or future possibilities, and the readiness for them, have significant value, even if they do not materialize.
The article does not present a "desirable" scenario but rather a "plausible" scenario, without value judgment. This scenario has implications that some may see as unfavorable and by others as opportunities. The article will first present the five drivers for a potential massive Israeli migration to Europe and then discuss the opportunities and challenges posed by the scenario. [3]
The Demographic Driver
The State of Israel is characterized by an extraordinary population growth rate in the Western world. According to a forecast by the United Nations[4], by the end of the current century, Israel is expected to have more than 18 million residents, and as early as 2060, approximately 14 million residents. This is in comparison to the 8.3 million people living in Israel (excluding the Palestinian population in the territories) at the time of this study. In other words, Israel's population is expected to double and possibly even exceed this by the end of the current century. Israeli demographic projections demonstrate even higher variability. The National Economic Council's model for Israel's economy projects that Israel's population will reach 15.7 million residents by 2050, and a similar model is presented by the Bank of Israel. These models also correspond to the United Nations' maximum model, which predicts that by 2100, there will be 24 million residents in Israel.
The implications of this number are enormous in terms of infrastructure, economics, politics, and society. The younger generation in Israel is tasked with the mission of establishing at least one (if not two) additional "states" to be able to accommodate this enormous population size. According to these models, the housing crisis, the transportation challenges, and political tensions are just in their early stages. Where will they all live? How will Israel's population move from home to work or other destinations within the country? These are all critical questions that Israeli society and its leadership are already struggling to answer, and this will only become more challenging as the numbers multiply.
In December 2021, "The Marker" newspaper published[5] a supplement entirely focused on the issue of population density in Israel, highlighting the potential ramifications and the various strategies being considered to mitigate them. "The Marker" quotes Dr. Eliyahu Ben Moshe, a demographer at the Hebrew University, who said that "…this crazy rate of growth harms everyone. People live under an anachronistic norm that requires them to have children. Still, they don't understand that these children will suffer in less favorable conditions with fewer opportunities." Professor Dan Ben-David, president of the Shoresh Institution for Socioeconomic Research, added: "…population growth, especially among groups that are not sufficiently participating in the labor market, alongside the problematic level of education – will deteriorate Israel towards being a third world country."
The Climate Driver
The climate crisis has a profound impact on the geopolitical system as a whole and on social issues, including migration. Both social processes and climate change are complex processes that are often difficult to link clearly. However, today it is common to examine, among other things, the development of "climate migration" – a transition of residents from one area to another mainly due to climate changes that make life in certain areas more difficult than before. Migration due to climate change can develop as a result of extreme weather events, prolonged drought, agricultural decline, and extremely high temperatures. The Knesset Research and Information Center (KRIC) recently published a document dealing with the impact of climate change on national security.[6] The research concludes that Israel must consider the migration to its territory from Africa and neighbouring countries due to climate changes in their regions. According to KRIC, this migration could significantly threaten national security. Israel may have to deal with the possible pressure of millions of migrants seeking to leave their place of residence in Africa. Beyond dealing with the security and geopolitical implications of such a situation, the report does not mention the impact of climate on what is happening in Israel itself, in terms of changes in weather, longer and hotter summers, shortened winters, and other processes that may affect agriculture, water sources, and more. There is no doubt that climate change will make Israel a less hospitable place to live, in addition to the growing population density. According to a forecast by the Israeli Meteorological Service in January 2022, most cities in Israel will experience an increase of tens of percentage points in the number of hot days in which the temperature exceeds 34 degrees Celsius by the middle of the century. The service predicts that the number of heat waves in many areas of the country will double, from two to four waves per year currently to six to seven waves in about 30 years, and they are expected to become more prolonged and extreme. In some regions, the heat waves are expected to reach a maximum of 48 degrees Celsius. The number of warm nights, in which the temperature is higher than 20 degrees Celsius, is also expected to rise, from 63 nights on average to 75 in 2050 [7].
The Social Driver
In Israel, the climate crisis is growing, and so is the social crisis. A process of disintegration of Israeli society into different tribes, each with its own vision or common ethos, is evident in the well-known speech by former President Reuven Rivlin, which earned the nickname "Tribal Speech." In his speech, the President presented the "Four Tribes" that make up Israeli society: the secular, the religious-national, the Arab, and the ultra-Orthodox – distinct tribes that are inherently different from one another and are growing closer in size. Much criticism has been levelled against Rivlin's analysis, noting the absence of additional "tribes" from the analysis, such as the traditionalist ("Sepharadi-Masorti") tribe, immigrants from the Former Soviet Union, Ethiopian immigrants, and others. However, the common denominator for Rivlin, his critics, and many other studies of Israeli society is the bottom line, which portrays an Israeli society that is fractured, conflicted and polarised, struggling to provide a solution and a coordinated response to its ability to be a democratic state which is the state of the Jewish people. The debate is not just about the desired shared vision but also the appropriate collective memory, and the dual dispute increasingly hinders the possibility of shared living.
The Pragmatic Driver
The demographic, climatic, and social crisis is accompanied by a pragmatic issue that may encourage immigration to Europe. In order to correct the historical injustice of the expulsion of the Jews from Spain and Portugal, the Portuguese law was amended in 2015, and Jews worldwide can apply for citizenship. In the seven years since the law was amended, tens of thousands of requests have been filed, with about 70% of them from Israel. The numbers have increased yearly, from 149 Israeli applications in 2015 to 15,000 in 2020. Similarly, in the past 15 years, about 30,000 Israelis have applied for Polish passports, and similar estimates suggest that a similar number have turned to the Romanian government. An unofficial estimate suggests that today about one million Israeli citizens hold foreign passports, at least half of which are European.
Assuming that generally, someone who holds foreign citizenship can pass it on to their children, a simple calculation shows that if 20% of Israel's population holds foreign citizenship today, this percentage will be preserved until the end of the century. In other words, by the end of this century, nearly 4 million citizens in the country will have foreign citizenship, which will enable them to move more easily around the world and even to immigrate to other countries. Will everyone exercise this option? Of course not. However, will the addition of many factors that make life difficult in the country not cause an increase in the percentage of emigrants among those who have the opportunity to do so? This is quite possible. Unlike in the past, when those who left Israel were derogatorily called "yordim" (literally, those who descended), or even "fallen of decay," today we can see a social and media discourse that presents a stable life outside of Israel as a legitimate option.
The European Driver
A confluence of demographic, climatic, social, and practical factors could serve as a catalyst for Israelis to migrate to Europe. Indeed, Europe itself may be keen on this. Currently, Europe is experiencing a "contraction" in terms of its population. Today, about 750 million people live in its countries, and the UN's research center study, the same one that predicts Israel's growth, predicts that by 2100, there will be about 630 million people living in Europe, a decrease of about 16% of the population. The population decline has dramatic implications for the composition of the population, economic and infrastructural capabilities, and national identity. It is assumed that Europe will look for ways to increase its population with a young, educated, and high-quality population – such as the one that exists in Israel, and it can be said – one that Europeans may perceive as more suitable for European society than immigration from Islamic or African countries.
Israelis are educated and multilingual, some with family traditions and memories rooted in Europe. The Israeli character is entrepreneurial, innovative, and precisely what Europe needs. So not only will Europe attract Israelis, but Israelis will also attract Europe, and it may proactively encourage Israeli immigration to it.
In a world where these five drivers of migration converge, millions of Israelis may soon find themselves uprooted and transplanting their lives to Europe. This scenario would transform the Jewish world from one dominated by two Jewish centers to one with three – Israel, the United States, and Europe.
The realization of this scenario raises many questions about the population that will remain in the State of Israel: Will the educated and affluent migrate, leaving behind only the lower socio-economic classes, potentially leading Israel down a path to becoming a third-world country? Or will it be those with a less strong connection to the Zionist vision – the ultra-Orthodox and Arabs – who will seize the opportunity to rebuild themselves in Europe? These questions, and many more, remain unanswered. However, regarding the future of the Jewish people in Europe, exciting possibilities emerge that can benefit both Europe and the Jewish existence as a whole, and I will outline them below.
Judaism and The Jewish people as a Bridge
Beyond the demographic challenge, Europe suffers from two additional acute problems: polarization and loneliness. Polarization in Europe, like in the rest of the world, is deepening, whether it be on the right or left, nationalism or pan-Europeanism, Islam or Christianity conflicts. As for loneliness, policymakers worldwide are becoming increasingly concerned about it. Campaigns to reduce loneliness have been launched in Britain, Denmark, and Australia. In 2017, the former US Surgeon General, Vivek Murthy, called loneliness an epidemic and compared its impact on health to smoking 15 cigarettes a day or being obese. In January 2018, Theresa May, the British Prime Minister, appointed Tracey Crouch as Minister for Loneliness to tackle the crisis.
Judaism offers a remedy to these acute problems through three central ideas ingrained in it: a culture of argument, a balanced sense of time, and community.
Culture of Argument – Judaism is a worldview that sanctifies a culture of argument and engages with the idea of "unity of opposites." The Jewish people embody this worldview through the concept of the "Beit Midrash," or house of study. The literature of the Jewish Sages offers an archetypal model, a type of cultural "myth," of a society built on disagreement, difference of opinion and decision-making. The Beit Midrash, or study hall, encourages disagreement, and every opinion is deemed legitimate. Within its walls, a perpetual debate ensues, and "these and those are the words of the living God." For thousands of years, it has created a balance between individual rights and the importance and authority of the community. In light of this, it can help develop balance and connection between different opinions and diverse population groups, together with Islam and Christianity. Judaism, as a religion and philosophy that is based not on power but on intellect, it can help strengthen intellectual forces in dealing with polarization, instead of relying on the military or other types of force.
The Jewish concept of Time – The concept of time in its Jewish meaning is embodied in the Sabbath, as a means of restoring balance in our modern lives.
Time is a multifaceted concept, often viewed as a commodity to be spent or managed. In our fast-paced world, the time has become a precious resource, and we are constantly pursuing ways to maximize our productivity and efficiency. However, this focus on productivity has come at a cost. We have lost sight of the importance of rest and reflection and the need to balance our work lives with our family lives.
In Jewish tradition, time is viewed as a gift from God, to be used in service of a greater purpose. The Sabbath is the most tangible embodiment of this idea. It is a day of rest, a time to disconnect from work demands and reconnect with our families and communities. It is a time to reflect on the purpose and meaning of our lives and to renew our commitment to the values that we hold dear.
Through the observance of the Sabbath, we are reminded of the importance of balance in our lives. We are reminded that there is more to life than work and productivity and that the pursuit of these goals should not come at the expense of our relationships with our loved ones or our own physical and mental health.
The Western world, which has lost to some extent this balance, can draw on these Jewish ideas to return to a more balanced state. By embracing the Sabbath, we can reclaim a sense of purpose and meaning in our lives and restore the balance between work and family life. We can rediscover the joy of rest and reflection and the importance of connecting with our families and communities.
The Community – Judaism is a rich tradition that offers much insight into the importance of communal relationships. While the Western world often prioritizes individual and personal rights discourse, the Jewish tradition seeks to create a social climate that encourages a sacred perception of human relationships.
At the center of the Jewish perception is the concept of dialogue – an interpersonal relationship system that occurs face to face. Martin Buber introduced this idea, which presents an alternative to the individualistic approach of the Western world. One of the fundamental ideas of the Jewish tradition is that a connection with other human beings has the value of sanctity, which is repeated again and again in our teachings.
Couplehood is referred to as kiddushin, ten people are a minyan, and the divine presence resides among them. The holy place is the synagogue, and its sanctity arises from the very gathering of people within it. There are rituals that have meaning only when performed in a group, and doing them alone is sometimes forbidden.
In Judaism, people are taught to understand the importance of their relationships with other individuals, regardless of their utility. This creates a cultural climate opposite to that created by the Western free market, which focuses on achievements rather than connections, on what can be gained from a relationship rather than its sanctity.
This idea has much to offer Europe, which is struggling with many societal problems. By embracing the Jewish perception of the importance of communal relationships, we can begin to address some of these issues.
Moreover, Judaism introduced the monotheistic perception, which includes the belief in one God as a moral authority outside of human society. This provides the basis for Western perceptions of individual rights and the concept of freedom.
In summary, Judaism contributes to communitarianism by creating a social climate that encourages a sacred perception of human relationships. By embracing this perception, we can address some of the societal problems we face and create a more harmonious and fulfilling society.
The existence of a Jewish center in Europe, if it happens, can bring a blessing to Europe both ideologically and practically, as has been the case throughout history, beyond the relative numerical weight of Jews on the continent. However, the realization of this scenario largely depends on what happens in the Jewish sphere in Israel by then, or in other words, on the success of the Israeli-Judaism movement overcoming the Israeli religious establishment in and proposing an alternative to contemporary Jewish identity anywhere.
Israeli Judaism
The establishment of the State of Israel provided the Jewish people with an opportunity that had not been possible since the days of the Romans: the existence of an independent Jewish nation that enables the construction of a society and culture based on Jewish values, tradition, and thought. The founding fathers of Zionism saw it as not only as a solution relating to the Jewish people – the realization of the Jewish self-definition but also as a solution to the problem of Judaism. However, is this really what is happening in the State of Israel? The existence of a Jewish national state whose institutions include the Chief Rabbinate poses not only opportunities but also a challenge to the issue of Jewish identity and continuity. Many ethical, cultural, and religious questions that in the past were subject to development and discussion within the Jewish community are now in the hands of bureaucratic bodies and especially in the hands of a central, national, and political body with a monolithic perception, whatever it may be. Israel as a state has introduced the concept "Jewish Vatican" a concept that never existed in Jewish history. From this, a conflict is created that is becoming more and more acute between bodies and individuals who hold different Jewish perceptions and a dominant religious body that claims exclusivity in dealing with these issues. The conflict that arises as a result of an ultra-Orthodox religious establishment that operates exclusively from the power of the State of Israel emphasizes the need for other approaches to be developed.
Indeed, in the last thirty years, "Israeli Judaism" has been developing and growing. The term "Israeli Judaism" refers to the unique expression of Jewish identity and practice that has emerged in the State of Israel since its establishment in 1948 but became more vibrant and active following Yithzak Rabin assassination in 1994.
Israeli Judaism reflects the intersection of Jewish tradition with modern Israeli society and culture. Unlike traditional forms of Judaism, which are often associated with specific communities, geographic regions and Halachic interpretation, Israeli Judaism is shaped by the diverse cultural and ethnic backgrounds of Israeli Jews, who come from a wide range of countries and traditions. As a result, Israeli Judaism is characterised by a rich diversity of practices, customs, and beliefs.At the same time, "Israeli Judaism" is also influenced by the unique challenges and opportunities of modern Israeli society and by a strong emphasis on Jewish identity and continuity. For many Israelis, being Jewish is not just a matter of religious practice but also a cultural and national identity. Israeli Judaism, therefore, seeks to create a meaningful and vibrant Jewish culture that can connect Jews in Israel and around the world.
Israeli Judaism is rooted in Jewish tradition, draws inspiration from religious and traditional practices, and develops a broad Jewish discourse, some innovative. Israeli Judaism is not necessarily committed to Jewish law, certainly not to the ultra-Orthodox law as represented by the Israeli religious establishment, and view Jewish tradition primarily as a source of inspiration rather than as a source of authority; some even define their Jewish identity as "secular Judaism". Israeli Judaism produces a discourse and language that could only develop in an environment where the majority of Jews are not dominated by full compliance to Halakhic outlook, while still feeling very much connected to the Jewish heritage and people.
Israeli Judaism is evolving and developing within the state of Israel, which, as mentioned, faces challenges in terms of climate, society, and infrastructure that are more intense than in other countries. This fact presents an opportunity to build a deep Israeli Jewish perspective that places at its center a community that promotes and demonstrates social justice, equality, quality education, the fight against poverty, an advanced and accessible healthcare system, innovation, responsible consumption, responsible ecological management, and more – all of which are central goals in sustainable development as defined today by most countries in the world. All of these goals can be rooted in ancient Jewish thought. However, such thinking requires translation into personal and communal practices. The reading of H.N. Bialik's article "Halakha and Aggadah" – "Come and lay upon us commandments" becomes particularly significant in this context.
Israeli Judaism should not only concerned with the "covenant of fate". Israel, as a country, can choose to serve as a model for the promotion and implementation of ideas related to social and communal justice and the ability to sustain a society that places cultural diversity at its core. This will not be foreign to Europe. This is not about a new culture that will challenge European culture but rather an idea, philosophy, and action that will offer a model and organized idea to European society. The majority of this idea is rooted in European culture itself. European culture, whose foundations have been challenged in recent years.
Global Israeli Judaism
Mass migration to Europe necessitates the development and export of this Israeli-Jewish perception so that just as today, a "Livtak" Jew does not have to live in Vilnius or Kaunas to be considered "Lithuanian," in the future, a Jew will be able to say that they are of the "Israeli" type or stream even if they live in Budapest, Melbourne, Berlin, London, or New York. This is the challenge that lies at the heart of the development of the Israeli-Jewish movement: the definition of Jewish thought and way of life, both personal and communal, rooted in tradition and based on education, community, personal practices, and communal rituals that encourage activism aimed at the empowerment and flourishing of the Jewish community, as well as the broader community in which it exists.
The success of this challenge will encounter an exciting trend that has emerged in the past decade, primarily in Eastern and Central Europe: more and more young people are seeking a connection to the Jewish community. Some recount the familial story of previous generations who were part of the Jewish community; for others, the family connection to the Jewish world is less clear. Perhaps some are searching for what Judaism today has to offer – community. And perhaps some are looking for answers to personal and collective identity questions in a world that is becoming increasingly individualistic.
As Rabbi Jonathan Sacks wrote in his book "Radical Then, Radical Now," Judaism is a religion of continuity. For its very existence, it depends on the willingness of successive generations to pass on their faith and way of life to their children and on their children's fidelity to the heritage of their past. In most periods, Jews saw themselves as a chosen people, not as a "choosing" people. Their identity was innate, a natural characteristic, a fact and not a decision.
Yet in Europe and other places in the world, many choose not to be Jewish, but conversely, many choose to be Jewish and to uphold continuity, despite not being born with a consciousness of their Jewishness. Many who chose to identify as Jews did not grow up in a home connected to the Jewish community. They have no memories from their father or grandfather's house of Jewish rituals such as prayer in a synagogue or the Passover Seder. And still, they choose to be Jewish. Many of them define themselves as "Jews with no religion". This means that their connection and entry into the Jewish world is not based on religious grounds, certainly not halachic, and they are looking for a Judaism that is social, communal, and cultural, that is well connected to the general Jewish, communal, and personal history. In other words, they are looking for what Israeli Judaism can provide.
As a depiction, many Israelis who migrate to other countries today are becoming disconnected from their Jewish identity. Their Judaism in Israel was passive, but they are not actively choosing to be Jewish and bring their identity to expression. Many resources, thoughts, and programs are invested in positively influencing the "Israel-Diaspora relationship" or promoting a relatively new (and vague) concept of "Jewish peoplehood" in public. However, those who deeply understand the challenges that these programs and efforts are trying to solve will find that the root of the problem is not the relationship between Israelis and the Diaspora but rather the relationship between Israelis and their Jewish identity and the definition of this identity as having a global meaning and not just as an identity that derives from their Israeli nationality.
The opportunity for Israelis in meeting with European Jewry lies in the creation of a Jewish identity by choice rather than one imposed by default or fate. Such a Jewish identity may be based on all possible dimensions: philosophical, religious, cultural, social, and active. Thus, the migration of Israelis to Europe can meet the Jewish-European desire for an identity based on choice and may also encourage them to maintain their identity through "Israeli Judaism".
The scenario at hand may be the symmetrical inverse of Herzl's vision in two aspects. The first is practical, the return of Jews to Europe, and the second is cultural – Herzl wanted to transplant European culture to Israel. At the same time, the presented scenario suggests transplanting Jewish-Israeli culture to Europe. Perhaps, in fact, this is not a symmetrical inverse of Herzl's vision, but rather the next chapter in his book that was not yet written, as he hinted in one of his letters: "…Through our state, we will be able to educate our people for missions beyond our horizon. For God would not have kept us alive for so long if he had not reserved for us another destiny in the annals of human intercourse."[8]
And what about the State of Israel?
The factors that may lead to the emigration of Israelis to Europe may not only contribute to the renewed growth of European Jewry but also have dramatic implications for the future of the State of Israel and the long-term success of the Zionist enterprise.
The high birth rate in Israeli society presents a stark contradiction to one of the fundamental assumptions of the demographic perception, which states that birth rates decline as education expands and the cost of raising a child increases. Indeed, this is what is happening in most countries of the world. Not in Israel. In Israel, there is a prevailing sense of "what has been will be." This phrase encapsulates the idea that the past determines the future, and that patterns from the past tend to repeat themselves in the future. In Israel, there is still no profound public discourse on the dramatic implications of population growth on future living conditions in the country. The issue is almost entirely ignored by society, the government, and social organizations in the State of Israel.
Continued disregard and lack of response to the trends presented here may lead to the departure of a large group of educated, innovative, and high-socioeconomic-status individuals. In such a case, the scenario presented here will result not only in quantitative deterioration but also in qualitative deterioration of Israeli society. God forbid, Israel will become a "third world" country not only in terms of its population growth characteristics.
On the other hand, serious, in-depth, and professional attention to the scenario presented here, or at least to the factors pushing towards it, could bring great blessings to the State of Israel.
It is not easy to discuss the implications of population growth in Israel. In a society where the central motivator is the belief that "children are a blessing," it is difficult to see how one can bring about a different perspective on the subject. In a society still grappling with the "unfinished business" of the Holocaust, such a discussion is almost sacrilegious. This is a challenge that lies at the heart of the civil sector, particularly its various components. Early indications can be seen in forming groups such as "Tzafuf – The Forum for Population, Environment, and Society."
A population growth that is considered abnormal can also have positive implications. Such growth is typically associated with a society that places a strong emphasis on the family and community, has faith in personal and collective futures, and is optimistic. A growing population allows for the developing of young talents and their contributions to society, which is particularly important for the Israeli economy that relies on innovation. These young talents are already creating a sense of urgency to address the challenges presented and turn them into national challenges. This sense of urgency drives change and renewal in all aspects related to the sustainable development of the State of Israel. Such change and renewal are not only the responsibility of the State of Israel but also have the potential to position Israel as a source of innovation for the entire world, as it demonstrates the realization of the fruits of innovation in Israeli society and the State of Israel itself.
The State of Israel must adopt forward-thinking and intentional planning processes rather than those solely focused on the upcoming election cycle. Long-term planning processes in all areas from which action plans are derived are critical to maintaining Israel's economic and social standing and continuing its prosperity. In a society that holds elections at least once a year, a state subject to a political situation that leads to government paralysis even in the present, it is difficult to talk about the distant future. However, this is a deeper Israeli problem. The ability to plan for the long term and move away from a mindset of "everything will be okay" is a cultural challenge for Israel.
Even when Israel had a more stable political system, there was an apparent difficulty in engaging in long-term planning. An example of this is the "Ombudsman for Future Generations" institution, which existed in the Israeli Knesset in the early 2000s. Its role, according to the law, was to ensure that legislation in Israel would not harm future generations. This role was created in 2001 through an amendment to the Knesset law initiated by the late Tommy Lapid. At the end of 2006, the term of the first Ombudsman for Future Generations, Judge (ret.) Shlomo Shoham, ended, the position remained vacant, and the Ombudsman for Future Generations ceased to function. In December 2010, the Knesset also repealed the provisions of the Knesset law that regulated its actions. Opponents of the existence of the "Ombudsman for Future Generations" institution in the Knesset argued that the existing political system knows how to take care of the future and does not need another factor focused on planning. Is this really the case?[9]
It is certainly possible to continue and make do with the current reality, but it should be noted that indecision is also a decision in such a case. The absence of change implies a decision to transform the State of Israel into a "third-world country".
The State of Israel has the potential to thrive and become a "light unto the nations" in all aspects of sustainable development. For this to happen, a sense of urgency is required, as well as bringing the topic to the center of public discourse and implementing different planning and execution processes than those that currently characterize Israel and Israeli society.
This is not just an opportunity for the State of Israel but also for Judaism and the Jewish people. Serious consideration of this scenario will, if desired, not only promote the prosperity of the State of Israel but also support intensive communal development in Europe, the establishment of Jewish education systems relevant to all age groups in and outside of Israel, the resurgence of Judaism as a leading philosophical idea in the Western world, and the development of a relevant Judaism that does not focus solely on being a "chosen people" but instead on the development of relevant, exciting Jewish Philosophy that will encourage a Jewish identity that any Jewish individual can choose and be proud of.
"… the thing is very close to you, in your mouth and in your heart, to observe it.…."
Deuteronomy 30:14
[1] " is it time for the Jews to leave Europe?", Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic, April 2015
[2] There are several methods in the field of Scenario Planning. It seems that the most advanced and widespread is the one developed at the University of Oxford. Anyone who wants to expand and learn more about this methodology is recommended to read the book: Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, written by Rafael Ramírez and Angela Wilkinson and published in 2016.
[3] We do not look into drivers of potential Jewish migration to Europe from North-America but this is another scenario that should be explored.
[4] https://population.un.org/wpp/
[5] "Crowded – that's what we expect" – Marker Week, December 2021
[6] Yehuda Turan, "The impact of climate change on national security", Research and Information Center of the Knesset, June 2021.
[7] Lee Yaron's article "A Spike in the Number of Hot Days in Most Israeli Cities Until 2050". The Marker, January 30, 2022.
[8] Benjamin Ze'ev Herzl, Herzl's Diary, June 14, 1895, in Herzl, Letters and Diaries, vol. 2, pp. 128-129.
[9] For a more in-depth analysis of the topic, refer to Aharon Ariel Lavi's article, "The Rise and Fall of the Next Generations' Ombudsman – The Shiloakh", issue 23.
Prudentia 